Cycles, Wars, and the Prophecy of Foundation

Arda Eşberk
Sep 20
4 min read

To understand the ups and downs of humanity spanning thousands of years, many theories have been developed across different disciplines. Among them, one has drawn particular attention in recent years…

History is not only the ashes of the past but also the compass of the future. To understand the cycles of rise and fall throughout human history, many theories have been proposed. One of the most striking in recent times is Russian-American scientist Peter Turchin’s ideas of Secular Cycles and the Structural-Demographic Theory.

Peter Turchin combines historical data with mathematical models and demonstrates that empires and states rise and fall within long cycles of about 200–300 years, inside which there are shorter waves of instability lasting 50–70 years. In this framework, population growth, elite overproduction, state fiscal crises, and deepening inequality eventually make conflict, rebellion, and war inevitable.

Looking at the world today, we are confronted with a picture that eerily overlaps with Turchin’s predictions. As of September 2025, newspaper headlines are dominated by war news:

Heavy bombardment by Russia in Donetsk region: Kremlin suspends peace talks. (New York Post)
Dozens killed in Israeli airstrikes; EU calls for sanctions on Israel. (AP News)
Russian drones violate Polish airspace: NATO strengthens defenses. (The Guardian)
China showcases its vision of a new global order with massive military parade. (Reuters)

These headlines are not merely isolated events, but rather expressions of a systemic cycle. We are living in an era where resources are shrinking, elite competition is intensifying, and state security apparatuses are expanding.

Asimov’s Foundation

At this point, one of the most important works of modern science fiction enters the stage: Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series. Thanks to its recent TV adaptation, the saga has reached new generations, presenting a vision remarkably close to Turchin’s theories. Asimov’s protagonist, Hari Seldon, develops a method called psychohistory that mathematically predicts the behavior of large populations and foresees the collapse of the Galactic Empire. His solution is not to prevent the fall, but to shorten the thousand years of chaos it would bring, by creating a Foundation.

The similarity between Asimov’s fictional future and Turchin’s historical model is striking: both emphasize the cyclical behavior of masses and systems, largely independent of individual will. The wars we witness today in Yemen, Ukraine, Gaza, or the Caucasus seem less like political choices and more like inevitable outcomes of much broader cycles.

Astrologically, the skies reflect a similar narrative. The eclipses of September 2025, Saturn’s retrograde in Pisces, and the tense aspect between Mars and Jupiter stir storms in the collective consciousness. Historically, eclipses have often coincided with turning points in empires’ destinies; now too, they seem to mark a critical crossroads.

What Does This Mean for Us?

Turchin’s theory reminds us of one crucial point: it is impossible to completely stop these cycles. Collapse, crises, and wars are embedded in humanity’s historical DNA. Asimov’s Foundation too was not about preventing collapse, but about minimizing the dark age that follows. The lesson is not to deny fate, but to prepare more consciously by acknowledging the inevitability of cycles.

While drowning in today’s war headlines, perhaps the real question we should be asking is this: How will we build our own Foundation? Which institutions, communities, and networks of consciousness will safeguard knowledge, awareness, and humanity’s legacy during this chaotic era? Because the cycles of history always bring rebirth after destruction.

At this point, the most powerful tools we hold as individuals are knowledge and awareness. Understanding the cycles and realizing that wars are not just products of today but of centuries of accumulation helps us step out of the role of passive victims. Just like in Asimov’s fiction, we too can become the “psychohistorians” of our age: we may not predict the future with certainty, but we can read the trends and organize our collective intelligence.

Ultimately, Turchin’s mathematics, Asimov’s literature, and astrology’s symbols all tell us the same thing: empires are born, grow, and collapse. Humanity, however, constantly reinvents itself within these cycles. With this awareness, we may find the courage to see the bigger picture hidden behind today’s headlines.

History is made not only of the cycles of states, but also of the cycles within individuals. Each of us experiences repeating patterns, rises and falls, crises, and rebirths. In Foundation, characters defy the system and write their own journeys; likewise, we can build our own “foundation.”

The essential questions are these: